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CITIZEN MARIN

BECAUSE  STATE HOUSING POLICY 

FAVORS LUXURY OVER AFFORDABILITY, 

REPLACES PLANNING WITH PROFITS, 

IGNORES HAZARDS AND THE ENVIRONMENT,

AND SETS UP CITIES TO FAIL  

STATE DEMANDS FOR 2.5 MILLION UNITS ARE UNSUPPORTED

Let’s start with real numbers:

The state demands 2.5 million more residences by 2031, regardless of each city’s actual needs. Why? The  California Department  of Finance refuted the numbers in 2023 — projections show the population will not grow 7+ million by 2031; it‘s projected almost flat through 2060. That’s  not due to lack of housing. It’s due to our aging population, declining birth rates, economic realities, higher outmigration, and lower inmigration.

 In other words, the mandates are based on “aspirations,”  not  need. 


But the state isn’t backing off the outrageous numbers, instead supporting  “ad hoc” methodology that intentionally over burdens cities . See the blog post “Think those RHNA numbers are based on something scientific?” below.


Whats happening now

COMING SOON: WAKE UP CALIFORNIA

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

Placeholder Logo!


We need  new efforts to infirm and engage people statewide on the devastating effects of California  housing policy. To that end I will soon be launching WAKE UP CALIFORNIA!  The goal is narrative change, and bring together all of our organizations statewide — from neighborhoods to Our Neighbirhood Voices. Please see blog post  below for more information.  

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

STAFF REFUSING TO BUDGE


Please see  previous posts about the Corcoran Community Plans lawsuit for context; update below in blog post.


Finally, a film that resonates with our common struggles

Marin County Still hasn’t SETTLED community plan lawsuit

Finally, a film that resonates with our common struggles

Using Sonoma County as a case study, the film showcases community opposition to state-mandated housing policies, county supervisors' decisions, and a developer's plans to transform a beloved, historic, and environmentally sensitive wildlife corridor into a large-scale development with minimal affordable housing. 

Blog post below

Link to three minute trailer here

PETITION — MARIN COUNTY: SAVE COMMUNITY PLANS

marin county PLANNING COMMISSIONER desser hits it out of the park

Finally, a film that resonates with our common struggles

WE NEED TO MAKE OUR VOICES HEARD AGAIN — FAST!  PLEASE SIGN ASAP, CUTOFF OCTOBER 28th! 


ASK OUR SUPERVISORS TO SIMPLY FOLLOW THE COURT ORDER! 


The petition contains this letter and full explanation of the issues: 


We, the undersigned, strongly support the Planning Commission’s reasoning and decision that simply restores the relevance of community plans, as per court order, without staff’s unnecessary language that further complicates interpretation of our Countywide Plan. We ask you to end this contentious chapter by following the recommendation of your expert Planning Commission, and simply remove the precedence clauses. 

Amy Kalish,
Director, Citizen Marin
Chair, Tam Design Review Board (signing as an individual)

Link to Petition

marin county PLANNING COMMISSIONER desser hits it out of the park

marin county PLANNING COMMISSIONER desser hits it out of the park

marin county PLANNING COMMISSIONER desser hits it out of the park

At the last Planning Commission hearing, Commissioner Desser made such strong points that I write an Op Ed to highlight her comments, and the constant attempts by CDA staff to undermine Marin County’s interests.


The piece ran in the Marin IJ and is available here as a petition update:

Update

Whats happening now

Sold out showings in sonoma

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods

First city to bankrupt from housing element costs?

Three sold out showings at the Sebastiani Theater in Sonoma , with excellent panel discussions. 


Showing for public and local government in Los Altos Hills, I was a panelist


Catalyst Town Hall event featured the film; Carolyn Scott and I were panelists 


To as about setting up a showing in your area, please email:

1citizenmarin.org

Link to three minute trailer here

First city to bankrupt from housing element costs?

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods

First city to bankrupt from housing element costs?


From the Mercury: “We’ve known about the structural deficit, which results from expenses associated with the housing element and increases to the sheriff’s contract, exacerbated by staff turnover and rising legal and consulting fees,” said Portola Valley Mayor Sarah Wernikoff during a Town Council meeting earlier this month.


Among the town’s largest expenses are costs associated with its contract with the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office, compliance with state housing requirements, and employee-related costs.

Portola Valley has also incurred unexpected costs for consultancy services to revise its housing plan, known as the housing element, which was decertified earlier this year. This decertification requires planning for affordable housing growth, and the town has spent approximately $1.7 million on consultants and legal fees related to the housing element this fiscal year.

The state’s Housing and Community Development Board decertified the town’s housing element after delays in rezoning areas to accommodate 253 additional homes — just a small share of the Bay Area’s targeted 441,000 homes that it is supposed to build by 2031.

Mercury News

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods


From  THE REAL DEAL: 


“But insurance experts caution lenders that the stakes are getting too high”


“High-risk developments are coinciding with insurers  upping premiums and pulling back from markets, leaving many property owners scrambling to provide a safety net for their properties. Given the potential profit for developers eyeing projects in high-risk areas, and the swelling losses for insurers covering such assets, the misaligned incentives are putting real estate, its backers and insurance firms at odds. “

Read More

Marin County update of community plans doesn’t solve problems

Marin County update of community plans doesn’t solve problems

Developers not afraid to build in high-risk areas, despite more fires and floods

County finally acknowledging the Superior Court ruling in favor of Corcoran vs County of Marin — which would restore community plans —  but the changes made to plans  still muddy the waters. 


blog post below with my  7/30/24 letter to the Board of Supervisors  



Award winning film maker takes on the issues

Marin County update of community plans doesn’t solve problems

Award winning film maker takes on the issues

Emmy-nominated, award winning filmmaker Carolyn Scott’s new film in progress, "SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL," documents a small rural community’s fierce  battle against  an ill-conceived, massive development  in a high-fire risk zone — and atop a crucial wildlife corridor. This project threatens safety, the environment, and biodiversity,  


California's relentless urbanization takes center stage in this compelling documentary.  Highly recommended,. Trailer  here, more info coming soon:


https://vimeo.com/953221618?share=copy

SB 7 Extends RHNA FLAWS

Marin County update of community plans doesn’t solve problems

Award winning film maker takes on the issues

This “spot” bill happened so fast there weren’t even any arguments submitted in support or opposition; please put your voice into the public record now! 


We can all recognize the critical need for affordable housing. None of the current punitive policies that rely on the private market are going to create it, and cities are punished as a result. SB 7 is a continuation of these dangerous, destructive, and unsuccessful policies.




See blog post below for details


SB 9 goes down in charter cities

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

SANDAG CITIES tell THE HCD:failure INEVITABLE

Big win for local zoning control. Five Charter Cities sued the state over  SB9, a 2022 state law that allows homeowners to split lots, and add 2 homes to each side —   without neighborhood notice or on site parking. It was  ruled unconstitutional in Charter Cities (which have their own constitutions, as opposed to General Law cities). The court decision soundly questions housing policy that promotes a “housing emergency” with  the cover of “affordability”— while the law has provisions to provide none;  there is not a single word in the law about affordability or even a requirement to rent any of the resulting new homes.


See blog post below for details


SANDAG CITIES tell THE HCD:failure INEVITABLE

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

SANDAG CITIES tell THE HCD:failure INEVITABLE

San Diego Area cities are facing mid-cycle review soon, and bluntly tell the HCD that they resent being set up for failure. They can approve projects, but HCD only counts permits pulled — an action taken by developers. Because they can’t get most developers to add more than 10% affordable units, they will fail the low income category mandates even if massive numbers of new units are built.

See what every locality’s future is like:  

start at minute 43 to skip over HCD presentation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arKeg7IFk7w&t=2617s


full video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arKeg7IFk7w

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

Marin County Community Plans have long zoned sensitive wildlife areas, the Bay Lands Corridor, the Ridge and Upland Green Belts, areas with no water or sewage, and no road access at lowest density -- allowing the fewest homes per acre possible.


The County is moving forward to codify changes that go beyond what is required. These areas will be open to density, just to  “prove to the state that we‘re serious about housing.” These areas aren’t  suitable  for anything but market rate  homes — if that.

This  doesn’t improve access to affordable housing. See more in blog post below. , 

MORE NEW LAWS GIVING OUR COAST TO DEVELOPERS

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

Marin county to allow density in sensitive areas

Not satisfied with last year’s SB 423 to override Coastal Commission decisions, this  years’s laws intend to gut the commission and allow density along our treasured coastline —  for profit, largely market rate, and  close to the shore. 


SB 951 is whipping through the senate, along with two others. The assembly will be next to push back or — cave. 



Insurance may come back — at a big price

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

So many major insurers non-renewed policies  that the state insurance plan — FAIR — is on the brink of insolvency. Plans are not just being cancelled for fire risk, they’re being cancelled for age of home and density — in cities!  The state is trying to lure insurers back with a plan that lets them use disaster modelling to base rates, which can set them sky high. It also allows easier rate increases. Unless you’re a mega corp, you can’t build or buy homes without insurance. 

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

WIENER PUTS “FANGS” into housing ELEMENT laws

New legislation will make it possible for the state to start fining cities up to $10,000 per day, to $50,000 per month, starting at the time they are noticed that their housing elements are being revoked. There are plenty of other fines, withholding of funds, and lawsuits that already pressure cities — watch the SANDAG video to see how impossible it is to satisfy the HCD and avoid Attorney General Bonta’s Housing Strike Force.

blog posts

ECONOMIST MICHAEL BARNES

https://48hills.org/2024/03/why-the-wiener-housing-bills-will-never-work-and-will-destroy-the-coast-a-detailed-primer/


SHARON RUSHTON SHREDS  FALSE HOUSING CRISIS NARRATIVE 

https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/5/19/power-players-problematic-playbook-for-housing


IT'S NOT ABOUT LOW-INCOME HOUSING

Tom Lai, Marin County Community Development AGENCY

"The county had to reduce the number of sites it was reserving for people with lower and moderate incomes so it could meet the State's target for producing homes for people with above-moderate incomes. The State would not allow us to carry a deficit in the above-moderate income category."

SURPRISED! low income in marin starts at $104,400

Not what you might have expected. Who does this policy really help?

40% of units required to be priced “above moderate” which means “market rate” /luxury housing

a build, Baby, build mentality of trickle down ECONOMIcs

MANDATED: 2.5 million more homes for a flat population

2.5 MILLION UNITS  STATEWIDE  DOES NOT REFLECT THESE REALITIES: 


  • FLAT GROWTH PREDICTED THROUGH 2060
  • NO MAJOR INSURERS FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION
  • climate change related natural disasters
  • drought (with lack of water storage, even in wet years)
  • fire hazards
  • limited evacuation routes
  • FEMA Flood zones
  • Areas subject to  sea level rise
  • sensitive environmental areas
  • huge population outflow and Covid deaths
  • Covid related changes in the way we work 
  • huge tech sector job losses (over 30,000 in the Bay Area as of 3/23)
  • unstable power grid
  • high cost of labor, materials, and interest
  • low availability of labor and materials
  • supply chain issues
  • impact on cities 
  • PGEs inability to connect all current and planned development 


The statistics used to create the RHNA failed a state audit.  California is not, and should not, be growing at 15%. The state knows that growth is predicted to be practically flat. 


Since state redevelopment agencies closed in 2012, there has been a growing disparity in expensive to lower priced housing.  Why? The free market prefers profitable development. The success of the tech market increased demand for high end housing; small houses were snatched up and flipped at high prices, often as larger remodels. Neighborhoods started changing.


Salaries for teachers and other essential workers did not increase, and they had to compete for scarcer housing  — considered affordable if rent was 30% of their income.


Those at the lower end were left in desperate straits with the rising costs of living and were displaced by what used to be the middle class.  Gentrification continues to displace those at the lower ends. 

Even when cities try to assist low-income housing projects, money does not go far: costs are now $850,000 to $1 million per unit.


Instead of creating policy to help those in need, state policy and laws have come together under the lobbying influence of YIMBY to create a for-profit solution — a vehicle to allow dense, unfettered, high-end development. 


This started in 2017, ramped up in 2019, and then the pace of legislation really took off during Covid.   There over 100 laws now, and they all do the same thing: strip away the ability of localities to plan for growth and give all the power to the developers who have been salivating over suburban, semi-rural, and coastal land that has been kept at low, livable densities. 


State overreach in law and policy has created dangerous precedents that undermine democracy without focus on providing affordable housing. 


This has all been aided by the lobbying strength of YIMBY — Yes in My Backyard — a "nonprofit " megalith that has driven housing policy in California since its initial heavy funding by the tech industry. 


There was no city-state discussion to adjust zoning and land use policy to encourage development where it could be safely and reasonably accommodated. Policy switched from a lackadaisical state response to a severe, overarching punishment-based system of compliance.



SOURCES


REAL  POPULATION PROJECTIONS
https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/1/9/rhna-abag-demographic-projections-are-way-off


Marin cities risk ‘builder’s remedy’ over housing plan delays
marinij.com

Marin IJ Readers’ Forum for Jan. 28, 2023
marinij.com

PGE CAN’T COMMIT TO SERVICING THAT MANY NEW HOOKUPS: 

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/california-housing-projects-pge-17828169.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email


Here's which Bay Area cities missed the housing element
sfexaminer.com

$5M available to build Marin County affordable housing northbaybusinessjournal.com



HAZARDS? "It won't be possible to avoid those areas."

Tom Lai, Director of Marin County Community Development, at the 2/22 BOS Meeting

wake up, the state has given your town away

WE ARE AGAINST THE FOR-PROFIT FORCED REZONING REQUIRED BY THE STATE

The state has a vision of California -- and Marin -- that was not shared with the voters. This site has a lot of information on how this happened, what to expect, and how to work together to put the brakes on it.


This is a free market solution  in no way responsible to the communities that will be affected.

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