440,000 units in the bay area?

THE STATE ASSIGNS NEW HOUSING NUMBERS EVERY 8 YEARS TO KEEP UP WITH FUTURE NEEDS. THIS TIME THE NUMBERS WERE ENORMOUS.

NINE MARIN CITIES AND THE COUNTY APPEALED THE HUGE NUMBERS.              

All of the conditions listed to the right were legitimate bases for appeals. 

ALL APPEALS WERE DENIED WITHOUT COMMENT.  

TOTAL NEW HOUSING FOR CALIFORNIA: 2.5 MILLION 

440,000 FOR THE BAY AREA 

14,405 FOR MARIN    

• California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) assigns Regional Housing Numbers Assessment (RHNA), a number of housing units a city must plan to accommodate over the next 8 years. The report is called a Housing Element (HE). This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031. The numbers assigned are significantly larger this cycle.
• Appeals by cities to reduce RHNA  for safety, environment, lack of buildable land, other relevant criteria  — filed but all denied
• Cities are overwhelmed by the Housing Element report requirements, hire contractors to help create draft document 
• Housing Elements process largely unknown: public outreach was largely over Covid, very little public engagement 
• City or county approves draft Housing Element , submits to HCD
• HCD reply  letters add further requirements. When new draft is finished, requires new approval by city or county 
• Housing Elements due to be resubmitted by the deadline (1/31/23) 
• 60 days wait for certificatio. If HE certified, contract w state complete for the time being 
• if not certified, while out of compliance, lawsuits, fines, and builder’s remedy can apply

https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/15/marin-cities-risk-builders-remedy-over-housing-plan-delays/

https://www.marinij.com/2022/02/03/marin-officials-wrestle-with-housing-safety-policy-conflict/

https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/28/marins-mandated-housing-much-planned-little-affordable/

Currently all Marin cities and the  county are out of compliance, though some may receive certification for recently submitted HEs. Some are being sued by Californians for Home Ownership, sponsored by the California Association of Realtors.

The Housing Element reports are very long (150 to over 900 pages). At the bottom of each city listing below is the link to the HE, with page number where housing site selection starts. 

The state has been assigning Regional Housing Needs Assessment numbers for  population growth in eight year cycles for a long time. This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031.

This cycle the numbers are way out of whack. They do not follow current population trends or take new realities into account. 

The numbers failed a state audit, yet each city must create a report, a “Housing Element,“ that shows where the housing could be built. 

That is the first step.
Being late or not having a certified Housing Element carries severe penalties. The deadline was 1/31/23. The numbers were so large that small towns with limited buildable land had to hire,  at great expense, contractors to create the reports. 

Most cities in the state, and in Marin, failed the deadline. The first punishment is builder’s remedy; while cities are out of compliance, any development that has a certain amount of affordability, no matter how out of scale or beyond normal limits a city would place, can be automatically approved, without the city’s consent.

Loss of transportation and housing funds are another punishment, and huge fines follow. 

The Department within the Attorney General’s office that issues these punishment is called the Housing Strike Force.

Then the city is held accountable if private developers do not actually build the housing, even though the the city can only issue permits, not force anyone to build.
RHNA must be The numbers are so large that cities are set up for failure.

Failure means the state sue and fine cities into conservatorship, and public lands will be chosen and sold off for private development by an outside conservator appointed by the state. 

HOUSING ELEMENTS  WERE DUE 1/31/23