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440,000 units in the bay area?

Set up to fail

Michael Barnes, economist and Albany City Council Member

“The inflated RHNA targets allow HCD to scapegoat local governments for the inability of developers and the profit-driven housing market to provide the quantity of housing California residents need at the prices they can afford.”

Glossary of terms below cities

HOW abag distributed Marin's 14,405 units

marin county 6th cycle rhna ‘23-‘31

SAUSALITO

BELVEDERE

BELVEDERE

RHNA 740 units 

(last cycle 78)


HE submitted 

out of compliance 3/1/23


https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/09/sausalito-readies-housing-element-for-state-submission/


City appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_City_of_Sausalito.pdf


housing site list pg 166:

Click Housing element

BELVEDERE

BELVEDERE

BELVEDERE

RHNA 160 units

(last cycle 


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_City_of_Belvedere.pdf


housing list site see pg 240 

Click Housing element

TIBURON

BELVEDERE

LARKSPUR

RHNA 639

(last cycle 78)


out of compliance  3/1/23

https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/29/tiburon-approves-housing-element-for-state-review/


City appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Tiburon.pdf


housing site list pg  401:

Click Housing element

LARKSPUR

CORTE MADERA

LARKSPUR

RHNA 979 units

(last cycle 132)


petition against magnolia 

https://www.change.org/p/ill-conceived-magnolia-village-keep-larkspur-beautiful?source_location=petitions_browse


out of compliance  3/1/23 


City appealed. https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_City_of_Larkspur.pdf


housing site list pg 272: 

Click Housing element

SAN ANSELMO

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

RHNA 833 units

(last cycle 106)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed.

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_San_Anselmo.pdf


Housing site list pg 123:

Click Housing element

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

RHNA 725

(last cycle 72)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Corte_Madera.pdf


housing site list pg 77:

Click Housing element

NOVATO

SAN RAFAEL

FAIRFAX

RHNA 2,090 units

(last cycle 415)


HE submitted

out of compliance  3/1/23


NO APPEAL


housing  site list see pg 122:

Click Housing element

FAIRFAX

SAN RAFAEL

FAIRFAX

RHNA  490 units

 (last cycle 61)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Fairfax.pdf

See: Sued for non completion

SAN RAFAEL

SAN RAFAEL

MILL VALLEY

RHNA  3,220 units

 (last cycle 1,007)


out of compliance 3/1/23


NO APPEALu


housing site list pg 119:

Click Housing Element

MILL VALLEY

MARIN unincorporated

MILL VALLEY

RHNA  865 units

 (last cycle 129)

will add about 2000 pop 


HE not finished

out of compliance  3/1/23


City appealed

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_City_of_Mill_Valley.pdf


also signed resolution.  

https://localcontrolca.com/static/6277d999ce7e1c6997a2772174585a07/Mill%20Valley%20-%20Passed%207-8-2021.pdf 


housing site list pg 140 

Click Draft HE sites

ROSS

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

RHNA  111 units

 (last cycle 16)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed. 

https://www.townofross.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/town_council/meeting/3411/10._-appeal_to_mtc_rhna.pdf


housing site list pg 33:

Click Housing element

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

RHNA  3,569 units

(last cycle 185)


out of compliance, in review submitted  2/1/23


County appealed. 

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_County_of_Marin.pdfr


housing site list pg  4:

Click Housing element

YOUR CITY'S APPEAL WAS DENIED

THE STATE ASSIGNS NEW HOUSING NUMBERS EVERY 8 YEARS TO KEEP UP WITH FUTURE NEEDS. THIS TIME THE NUMBERS WERE ENORMOUS.


NINE MARIN CITIES AND THE COUNTY APPEALED THE HUGE NUMBERS.              

All of the conditions listed to the right were legitimate bases for appeals. 


ALL APPEALS WERE DENIED WITHOUT COMMENT.  


TOTAL NEW HOUSING FOR CALIFORNIA: 2.5 MILLION 

440,000 FOR THE BAY AREA 

14,405 FOR MARIN    



APPEAL CRITERIA:

CHANGED CONDITIONS

DROUGHT 

FIRE DANGER 

NARROW ROADS

LIMITED EVACUATION ROUTES 

FEMA FLOOD AREAS

SEA LEVEL RISE

TRAFFIC

SEWAGE AND SEPTIC LIMITS

INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITATIONS

LACK OF SUITABLE LAND

GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTRAINTS

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 

WER'E NOT TRANSIT RICH

WER'E NOT JOB RICH

ALL REJECTED

a few IMPORTANT TERMS

HCD: California Department of Housing and Community Development, responsible for creating the numbers and statewide strategies for implementation  ABAG is the Association of Bay Area Governments, responsible for distributing the RHNA in our area.

RHNA: Regional Housing Needs Assessment. These are the numbers distributed to the localities. The Bay Area has a RHNA or 441,000. 14,405 of those were assigned to Marin, and further broken down by locality.

HE is a Housing Element. A document containing specific reports and a plan that shows where all of the RHNA can be accomodated.  Every locality must produce one, and submit it to HCD for certification. More than one draft is usually required; they are often sent back with long letters adding further reports that must be included.  The HE is considered a contract between the locality and the state.

APPEALS  were solicited from localities that found the RHNA unmanageable for “changed circumstances” including limited  buildable land, fire and other natural hazards, environmental concerns, etc.  Appeals asked for reduction in numbers. 

5th and 6th CYCLE: Housing cycles are eight years long. The 5th cycle, which just ended, had reasonable RHNA. we are just starting the 6th cycle RHNA, which covers 2023 through 2031

HOUSING SITE LISTS: These are public and private lands where the city agrees they can accommodate the RHNA housing 

cities being sued

YIMBY sues across Bay Area

 Why YIMBYs are about to sue the daylights out of Bay Area cities (sfchronicle.com) 

Sausalito sued for non-compliance

 YIMBYs sue Sausalito over housing element with underwater sites (sfchronicle.com) 

Californians for Home Ownership Unmasked

 Housing lawsuits against Marin cities funded by Realtors (marinij.com) 

Novato and Belvedere

 Activists sue Marin cities over housing plans (marinij.com) 

Why are Cities Late?

Many cities do not have enough undeveloped, hazard free land. This area is old, and geographically constrained.  The reports are expensive and time consuming to produce, and cities paid consultants tens of thousands to millions of dollars to create them, but still housing is in hazard areas without reasonable evacuation routes. Cities do not want to see local businesses razed for housing. They don’t want their parkland to be used for housing.  Housing built on the most expensive land in the world will remain expensive to build and expensive to buy/rent. 

More Coming

BASICS OF THIS PROCESS WORKS

  • California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) assigns Regional Housing Numbers Assessment (RHNA), a number of housing units a city must plan to accommodate over the next 8 years. The report is called a Housing Element (HE). This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031. The numbers assigned are significantly larger this cycle.
  • Appeals by cities to reduce RHNA  for safety, environment, lack of buildable land, other relevant criteria  — filed but all denied
  • Cities are overwhelmed by the Housing Element report requirements, hire contractors to help create draft document 
  • Housing Elements process largely unknown: public outreach was largely over Covid, very little public engagement 
  • City or county approves draft Housing Element , submits to HCD
  • HCD reply  letters add further requirements. When new draft is finished, requires new approval by city or county 
  • Housing Elements due to be resubmitted by the deadline (1/31/23) 
  • 60 days wait for certificatio. If HE certified, contract w state complete for the time being 
  • if not certified, while out of compliance, lawsuits, fines, and builder’s remedy can apply


https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/15/marin-cities-risk-builders-remedy-over-housing-plan-delays/


https://www.marinij.com/2022/02/03/marin-officials-wrestle-with-housing-safety-policy-conflict/


https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/28/marins-mandated-housing-much-planned-little-affordable/


Currently all Marin cities and the  county are out of compliance, though some may receive certification for recently submitted HEs. Some are being sued by Californians for Home Ownership, sponsored by the California Association of Realtors.


The Housing Element reports are very long (150 to over 900 pages). At the bottom of each city listing below is the link to the HE, with page number where housing site selection starts. 

above MODERATE CATEGORY always gets built

YOUR CITY AS OF 3/1/23

HOUSING ELEMENTS AND RHNA

The state has been assigning Regional Housing Needs Assessment numbers for  population growth in eight year cycles for a long time. This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031.


This cycle the numbers are way out of whack. They do not follow current population trends or take new realities into account. 


The numbers failed a state audit, yet each city must create a report, a “Housing Element,“ that shows where the housing could be built. 


That is the first step.
Being late or not having a certified Housing Element carries severe penalties. The deadline was 1/31/23. The numbers were so large that small towns with limited buildable land had to hire,  at great expense, contractors to create the reports. 


Most cities in the state, and in Marin, failed the deadline. The first punishment is builder’s remedy; while cities are out of compliance, any development that has a certain amount of affordability, no matter how out of scale or beyond normal limits a city would place, can be automatically approved, without the city’s consent.


Loss of transportation and housing funds are another punishment, and huge fines follow. 


The Department within the Attorney General’s office that issues these punishment is called the Housing Strike Force.


Then the city is held accountable if private developers do not actually build the housing, even though the the city can only issue permits, not force anyone to build.
RHNA must be The numbers are so large that cities are set up for failure.


Failure means the state sue and fine cities into conservatorship, and public lands will be chosen and sold off for private development by an outside conservator appointed by the state. 


HOUSING ELEMENTS  WERE DUE 1/31/23

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