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14,405 units in marin?

Glossary of terms below cities

HOW abag distributed Marin's 14,405 units

marin county 6th cycle rhna ‘23-‘31

SAUSALITO

SAN RAFAEL

SAUSALITO

RHNA 740 units 

(last cycle 78)


HE submitted 

out of compliance 3/1/23


https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/09/sausalito-readies-housing-element-for-state-submission/


City appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_City_of_Sausalito.pdf


housing site list pg 166:

Click Housing element

TIBURON

SAN RAFAEL

SAUSALITO

RHNA 639

(last cycle 78)


out of compliance  3/1/23

https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/29/tiburon-approves-housing-element-for-state-review/


City appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Tiburon.pdf


housing site list pg  401:

Click Housing element

SAN RAFAEL

SAN RAFAEL

SAN RAFAEL

RHNA  3,220 units

 (last cycle 1,007)


link to piece on massive 4th street project:

https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/4/9/future-schlock


out of compliance 3/1/23


NO APPEAL


housing site list pg 119:

Click Housing Element

LARKSPUR

MILL VALLEY

SAN RAFAEL

RHNA 979 units

(last cycle 132)


Certified housing element 

start page 78 


https://www.ci.larkspur.ca.us/DocumentCenter/View/20137/2023-2031-Housing-Element-Adopted


full larkspur page

BELVEDERE

MILL VALLEY

MILL VALLEY

RHNA 160 units

(last cycle 


out of compliance 5/2/23

FULL BELVEDERE PAGE

MILL VALLEY

MILL VALLEY

MILL VALLEY

RHNA  865 units

 (last cycle 129)

will add about 2000 pop 


HE out of compliance  5/2/23


https://www.marinij.com/2023/05/18/mill-valley-clears-housing-element-for-state-review/


FULL MILL VALLEY PAGE

SAN ANSELMO

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

RHNA 833 units

(last cycle 106)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_San_Anselmo.pdf


Housing site list pg 123:

Click Housing element

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

CORTE MADERA

RHNA 725

(last cycle 72)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Corte_Madera.pdf


housing site list pg 77:

Click Housing element

NOVATO

CORTE MADERA

FAIRFAX

RHNA 2,090 units

(last cycle 415)


HE submitted

out of compliance  3/1/23

HCD rejection letter 4/12/23:


https://www.hcd.ca.gov/sites/default/files/docs/planning-and-community/housing-element/MarNovatoDraftOut041223.pdf




NO APPEAL


housing  site list see pg 122:

Click Housing element

FAIRFAX

MARIN unincorporated

FAIRFAX

RHNA  490 units

 (last cycle 61)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_Town_of_Fairfax.pdf

See: Sued for non completion

ROSS

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

RHNA  111 units

 (last cycle 16)


out of compliance 3/1/23


City appealed RHNA:

https://www.townofross.org/sites/default/files/fileattachments/town_council/meeting/3411/10._-appeal_to_mtc_rhna.pdf


housing site list pg 33:

Click Housing element

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

MARIN unincorporated

RHNA  3,569 units

(last cycle 185)


out of compliance, in review submitted  2/1/23


County has received HCD response letter. Denial  based only on AFFH


https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_County_of_Marin.pdf



County appealed RHNA:

https://abag.ca.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2021-07/2023-2031_RHNA_Appeal_County_of_Marin.pdf


Third version sent to state:

https://www.marinij.com/2023/06/18/marin-county-adjusts-housing-element-to-secure-state-approval/


housing site list pg  4:

Click Housing element

CONTACT YOUR CITY COUNCIL OR BOARD OF SUPERVISORS

BELVEDERE

clerk@cityofbelvedere.org

CORTE MADERA

lbarrera@tcmmail.org

SAN ANSELMO

 towncouncil@townofsananselmo.org

FAIRFAX

cfoster@townoffairfax.org

SAUSALITO

cityclerk@sausalito.gov.

TIBURON

town@townoftiburon.org

SAN RAFAEL

cristine.alilovich@cityofsanrafael.org

MILL VALLEY

cityclerk@cityofmillvalley.org

NOVATO

city@novato.org

UNINCORPORATED MARIN

BOS@marincounty.org

What HAPPENS TO CITIES when projects ARE

80% market rate, 20% “affordable”

LARKSPUR, POPULATION 13,272


The small town of Larkspur has a RHNA just under 1000. Of those, 605 must be "affordable.* Considered massive and out of place by Larkspur standards, a  twenty unit project called Magnolia Village was  — under duress —  approved by the Planning Commission.  


Sixteen units are market rate, four are affordable. 


Because 605 affordable  units are required, and so few are added at a time, It would take 

150 projects like that in Larkspur to fulfill the RHNA in all categories.  


150 x 20  = 3,000  units


If 3,000 units are built like that, 2,400 will be market rate, and 600 will be affordable. 


Market rate RHNA will be met at 700%


The affordable categories will still come up five units short 

The RHNA is very specific about how the 605 will be split between categories 


The city of Larkspur will be dominated by huge structures. Traffic will be unbearable. 

With 3,000 new homes, the population could increase  from 13,272 to 20,000.


All neighboring cities will also see that kind of density and exponential development. Marin will be a very different place. 


Or the projects might stall out, or never be built.  Even if  cities approve all projects, they are still responsible if developers don’t complete the units.


The need for 605 units of below market rate housing isn't even supported by state figures, which show we are not going to grow by seven million people. The population will stay relatively flat. 


WHY ARE SO FEW AFFORDABLE UNITS TOSSED IN ?  

DEVELOPERS AREN’T INTERESTED IN PROJECTS THAT ARE NOT PROFITABLE.  


* the affordable categories are moderate, low income, extra low income

YOUR CITY'S APPEAL WAS DENIED

THE STATE ASSIGNS NEW HOUSING NUMBERS EVERY 8 YEARS TO KEEP UP WITH FUTURE NEEDS. THIS TIME THE NUMBERS WERE ENORMOUS.


NINE MARIN CITIES AND THE COUNTY APPEALED THE HUGE NUMBERS.              

All of the conditions listed to the right were legitimate bases for appeals. 


ALL APPEALS WERE DENIED WITHOUT COMMENT.  


TOTAL NEW HOUSING FOR CALIFORNIA: 2.5 MILLION 

440,000 FOR THE BAY AREA 

14,405 FOR MARIN    



APPEAL CRITERIA:

CHANGED CONDITIONS

DROUGHT 

FIRE DANGER 

NARROW ROADS

LIMITED EVACUATION ROUTES 

FEMA FLOOD AREAS

SEA LEVEL RISE

TRAFFIC

SEWAGE AND SEPTIC LIMITS

INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITATIONS

LACK OF SUITABLE LAND

GEOGRAPHICAL CONSTRAINTS

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 

WER'E NOT TRANSIT RICH

WER'E NOT JOB RICH

ALL REJECTED

a few IMPORTANT TERMS

HCD: California Department of Housing and Community Development, responsible for creating the numbers and statewide strategies for implementation  ABAG is the Association of Bay Area Governments, responsible for distributing the RHNA in our area.

RHNA: Regional Housing Needs Assessment. These are the numbers distributed to the localities. The Bay Area has a RHNA or 441,000. 14,405 of those were assigned to Marin, and further broken down by locality.

HE is a Housing Element. A document containing specific reports and a plan that shows where all of the RHNA can be accomodated.  Every locality must produce one, and submit it to HCD for certification. More than one draft is usually required; they are often sent back with long letters adding further reports that must be included.  The HE is considered a contract between the locality and the state.

APPEALS  were solicited from localities that found the RHNA unmanageable for “changed circumstances” including limited  buildable land, fire and other natural hazards, environmental concerns, etc.  Appeals asked for reduction in numbers. 

5th and 6th CYCLE: Housing cycles are eight years long. The 5th cycle, which just ended, had reasonable RHNA. we are just starting the 6th cycle RHNA, which covers 2023 through 2031

HOUSING SITE LISTS: These are public and private lands where the city agrees they can accommodate the RHNA housing 

cities being sued

YIMBY sues across Bay Area

 Why YIMBYs are about to sue the daylights out of Bay Area cities (sfchronicle.com) 

Sausalito sued for non-compliance

 YIMBYs sue Sausalito over housing element with underwater sites (sfchronicle.com) 

Californians for Home Ownership Unmasked

 Housing lawsuits against Marin cities funded by Realtors (marinij.com) 

Novato and Belvedere

 Activists sue Marin cities over housing plans (marinij.com) 

Why are Cities Late?

Many cities do not have enough undeveloped, hazard free land. This area is old, and geographically constrained.  The reports are expensive and time consuming to produce, and cities paid consultants tens of thousands to millions of dollars to create them, but still housing is in hazard areas without reasonable evacuation routes. Cities do not want to see local businesses razed for housing. They don’t want their parkland to be used for housing.  Housing built on the most expensive land in the world will remain expensive to build and expensive to buy/rent. 

More Coming

BASICS OF THIS PROCESS WORKS

  • California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) assigns Regional Housing Numbers Assessment (RHNA), a number of housing units a city must plan to accommodate over the next 8 years. The report is called a Housing Element (HE). This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031. The numbers assigned are significantly larger this cycle.
  • Appeals by cities to reduce RHNA  for safety, environment, lack of buildable land, other relevant criteria  — filed but all denied
  • Cities are overwhelmed by the Housing Element report requirements, hire contractors to help create draft document 
  • Housing Elements process largely unknown: public outreach was largely over Covid, very little public engagement 
  • City or county approves draft Housing Element , submits to HCD
  • HCD reply  letters add further requirements. When new draft is finished, requires new approval by city or county 
  • Housing Elements due to be resubmitted by the deadline (1/31/23) 
  • 60 days wait for certificatio. If HE certified, contract w state complete for the time being 
  • if not certified, while out of compliance, lawsuits, fines, and builder’s remedy can apply


https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/15/marin-cities-risk-builders-remedy-over-housing-plan-delays/


https://www.marinij.com/2022/02/03/marin-officials-wrestle-with-housing-safety-policy-conflict/


https://www.marinij.com/2023/01/28/marins-mandated-housing-much-planned-little-affordable/


Currently all Marin cities and the  county are out of compliance, though some may receive certification for recently submitted HEs. Some are being sued by Californians for Home Ownership, sponsored by the California Association of Realtors.


The Housing Element reports are very long (150 to over 900 pages). At the bottom of each city listing below is the link to the HE, with page number where housing site selection starts. 

above MODERATE CATEGORY always gets built

YOUR CITY AS OF 3/1/23

HOUSING ELEMENTS AND RHNA

The state has been assigning Regional Housing Needs Assessment numbers for  population growth in eight year cycles for a long time. This is the 6th cycle, 2023-2031.


This cycle the numbers are way out of whack. They do not follow current population trends or take new realities into account. 


The numbers failed a state audit, yet each city must create a report, a “Housing Element,“ that shows where the housing could be built. 


That is the first step.
Being late or not having a certified Housing Element carries severe penalties. The deadline was 1/31/23. The numbers were so large that small towns with limited buildable land had to hire,  at great expense, contractors to create the reports. 


Most cities in the state, and in Marin, failed the deadline. The first punishment is builder’s remedy; while cities are out of compliance, any development that has a certain amount of affordability, no matter how out of scale or beyond normal limits a city would place, can be automatically approved, without the city’s consent.


Loss of transportation and housing funds are another punishment, and huge fines follow. 


The Department within the Attorney General’s office that issues these punishment is called the Housing Strike Force.


Then the city is held accountable if private developers do not actually build the housing, even though the the city can only issue permits, not force anyone to build.
RHNA must be The numbers are so large that cities are set up for failure.


Failure means the state sue and fine cities into conservatorship, and public lands will be chosen and sold off for private development by an outside conservator appointed by the state. 


HOUSING ELEMENTS  WERE DUE 1/31/23

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