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Citizen Marin is Here to Inform

Your city just had a deadline to turn in a huge document, a Housing Element, that identifies land, private and public, where a state mandated amount of housing could be developed. 


Like most cities, yours probably failed to meet that deadline. 


Past Housing Elements were easier. The new ones require so much detail and so many reports that cities had to hire to private consultants, paying out tens of thousands to millions of dollars to produce a Housing Element.


After leaving low income housing to the free market for a decade, we’re coming up short. There is an undeniable need for affordable housing.  There is no shortage of market rate housing, because it’s profitable.  But  the nine-county Bay Area must plan for 441,000 new residences — a 15% increase in population — and about 40% are MANDATED  AT MARKET RATE. 


LETTERS AND BLOG POSTS ARE AT: WWW. MARINPOST.ORG

Welcome to citizen marin

wake up, or the state runs everything

THE CONCEPT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IS BEING ERODED BY THE STATE. AGRESSIVELY AND UNDEMOCRATICALLY

THERE IS A NEW VISION OF CALIFORNIA— AND MARIN — THAT WAS NOT SHARED WITH THE VOTERS 


During 2020, while we were all distracted by covid, our lawmakers were busy. The governor declared a housing crisis, and the legislature started passing a huge number of housing laws to eliminate any local input that could slow the pace of housing. Permits, traffic studies, public hearings, lot coverage limitations, CEQA (California Enivronmental Quality Act) ... all are now considered nuisances. The laws forced cities to re-zone and change land use policies.  They created a streamlined approval process to incentivize builders, and added a bunch of sweeteners. For developers, all carrot. For cities, all stick.


This is a free market solution  in no way responsible to the communities that will be affected.


YOUR COMMUNITY NO LONGER MATTERS

Local governments — our link to democracy — have been sidelined under extreme pressure. New laws are crushingly punitive for cities out of compliance. Your town’s character is no longer relevant. 


The mandates and laws force small towns in hazard zones to make bad choices. It doesn’t leave room for meaningful affordable housing. Long term city planning is no longer the way our communities will grow. Massive market rate projects with a small percentage of affordability are already being granted swift approvals, plunked practically anywhere, and city/county governments have no say.

IT'S NOT ABOUT LOW-INCOME HOUSING

"The county had to reduce the number of sites it was reserving for people with lower and moderate incomes so it could meet the State's target for producing homes for people with above-moderate incomes. The State would not allow us to carry a deficit in the above-moderate income category."


Tom Lai, Director of Marin County Community Development Dept

a build, Baby, build mentality based on trickle down ECONOMI

2.5 million more homes, enough for 7 million more people

Every 8 years cities are given housing mandates called RHNA ( Regional Housing Needs Assessment) but this cycle the numbers assigned were huge. January 31, 2023 was the deadline for turning in a  document, a Housing Element, that shows the locations where the mandated housing could be accommodated. 


Many small built-out cities with obvious limitations  have had trouble finding the space. With no available open land, cities need private landowners willing to shutter local businesses and redevelop into housing. Otherwise public lands must be donated or sold for resident development.


DID YOUR CITY MAKE ITS DEADLINE ? 


The Housing Elements must be certified by the state. While a city is out of compliance they are subject to lawsuits, fines, and builder‘s remedy (see links). Besides the new Housing Strike Force in the office of Attorney General Bonita, other organizations are lining up to sue. 


Many Marin cities are already in this boat. As of 3/11/23, lawsuits have been filed  or threatened against:

  • Sausalito (needs to site 740 units) 
  • Fairfax (needs to site 490 units)
  • Belvedere (a built out island now required to site 160 units)
  • Novato (2,090 new units)


THE METHODOLOGY OF GETTING TO 2.5 MILLION UNITS  STATEWIDE  DO NOT REFLECT THESE REALITIES: 


  • climate change related natural disasters
  • drought (with lack of water storage, even in wet years)
  • fire hazards
  • limited evacuation routes
  • FEMA Flood zones
  • Areas subject to  sea level rise
  • sensitive environmental areas
  • huge population outflow and Covid deaths
  • Covid related changes in the way we work 
  • huge tech sector job losses (over 30,000 in the Bay Area as of 3/23)
  • unstable power grid
  • high cost of labor, materials, and interest
  • low availability of labor and materials
  • impact on cities 
  • PGEs inability to connect all current and planned development 


Only census figures (pre-Covid) and projections from the department of finance are supposed to be used, and even then the number failed a state audit.  California is not, and should not, be growing at 15%. . 


Since state redevelopment agencies closed in 2012, there has been a growing disparity in  expensive to lower priced housing.  Why? The free market prefers profitable development. The success of the  tech market increased demand for high end housing; small houses were snatched up  and flipped  at high prices, often as larger remodels. Neighborhoods started changing.


Salaries for teachers and other essential workers did not increase, and they had to compete for scarcer housing that didn’t take more than 30% of their income.


Those at the lower end were left in desperate straights with the rising  costs of living, and were displaced by what used to be the middle class.  Gentrification continues to displace those at the lower ends. 

Even when cities try to assist low income housing projects, money does not go far: costs are minimally $500,000 per unit.


Instead of creating policy to help those in need, state policy and laws have come together under the lobbying influence of YIMBY to create a for-profit solution — a vehicle to allow dense, unfettered,  high-end development. 


This started in 2017, ramped up in 2019, and then the pace of legislation really took off during Covid.   There almost 100 laws now, and they all do the same thing: strip away the ability of localities to plan for growth, and give all the power to the  developers who have been salivating over suburban and semi-rural  land that has been kept at low, livable densities. 


State overreach in law and policy has created  dangerous precedents that undermine democracy without focus on providing affordable housing. 


This has  all  been aided by the lobbying  strength of YIMBY — Yes in My Backyard — a nonprofit megalith that has driven housing policy in California since its initial heavy funding by the tech industry. 


There was no city-state discussion to adjust zoning and land use policy to encourage development where it could be safely and reasonably accommodated. Policy switched from a lackadaisical  state response to a severe, overarching punishment-based system of compliance. 


THERE WAS A REAL PROBLEM. THIS IS A TERRIBLE SOLUTION

THE HOUSING STRIKE FORCE
The state took a sledgehammer to local land use policy and stripped cities of the right to even question development. The legislated for-profit method: remove all perceived impediments to development:


  • zoning
  • public process
  • transparency
  • environmental protections 


In exchange for adding  a minimal number of lower cost or rent restricted units to projects, developers  have free rein to do as they like.  State law forces cities to give streamlined approvals and hefty bonuses  to such developments, regardless of any local concerns.


To avoid subsidizing needed housing, the state gives for-profit developers are huge incentives  to create expensive multi-family housing if they include a small percentage  of affordable units.  Cities must allow:

  • Streamlined approvals based on objective standards only
  • greatly increased density, height, lot coverage
  • decreased or eliminated setbacks, step backs,  parking, and tree cover 


The results of this process do not match the types of housing cities are  mandated to produce.  The  RHNA mandates require roughly 40% at the lower end, 20% in the middle, and 40% at market rate. 


The system, however, creates 80% market rate housing  with 20% lower income units.


Is your town short of very expensive housing? No?  It’s going to get a lot more, anyway.  And when the accounting is done in 2, 4, and 8 year reviews,  cities will be punished if developers have not actually built the mandated amount of housing in the correct percentages.

SOURCES


REAL  POPULATION PROJECTIONS
https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/1/9/rhna-abag-demographic-projections-are-way-off



Marin cities risk ‘builder’s remedy’ over housing plan delays
marinij.com

Marin IJ Readers’ Forum for Jan. 28, 2023
marinij.com


PGE CAN’T COMMIT TO SERVICING THAT MANY NEW HOOKUPS: 

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/california-housing-projects-pge-17828169.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=share-by-email&utm_medium=email


Here's which Bay Area cities missed the housing element
sfexaminer.com

$5M available to build Marin County affordable housing northbaybusinessjournal.com


EXAMPLE OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH A 20/80 RATIO:

LARKSPUR,  POPULATION 13,272


Larkspur has a RHNA just under 1000. A massive 20 unit project called Magnolia Village was  — under duress —  approved by the Planning Commission. 


16 units are market rate, 4 are below. 


It would take 150 projects like that in Larkspur to fulfill the RHNA in all categories.  150 x 20  = 3,000  units


If 3,000 units are built like that, 2,400 will be market rate, and 600 will be priced below (a specific  mix of moderate, low, and extra low units). 


Market rate RHNA will be met at 700%


The lower categories will still  come up 5 units short with a RHNA of 605 


The city of Larkspur will be dominated by huge structures. Traffic will be unbearable. With 3,000 new homes, the population could increase  from 13,272 to 20,000


All neighboring cities will also see that kind of exponential growth. Marin will be a very different place.


If the RHNA didn’t mandate market rate, and 605 units were built without being tossed in to expensive developments, the population would still increase by about 1,500

Site Content

Additional Information


THERE WAS A REAL PROBLEM. THIS IS A TERRIBLE SOLUTION
The state took a sledgehammer to local land use policy and stripped cities of the right to even question development. The legislated for-profit method: remove all perceived impediments to development:

  • zoning
  • public process
  • transparency
  • environmental protections 

In exchange for adding  a minimal number of lower cost or rent restricted units to projects, developers  have free rein to do as they like.  State law forces cities to give streamlined approvals and hefty bonuses  to such developments, regardless of any local concerns.
To avoid subsidizing needed housing, the state gives for-profit developers are huge incentives  to create expensive multi-family housing if they include a small percentage  of affordable units.  Cities must allow:

  • Streamlined approvals based on objective standards only
  • greatly increased density, height, lot coverage
  • decreased or eliminated setbacks, step backs,  parking, and tree cover 

The results of this process do not match the types of housing cities are  mandated to produce.  The mandates (called RHNA — Regional Housing Needs Assessmenot) require roughly 40% at the lower end, 20% in the middle, and 40% at market rate. 


The system, however, creates 80% market rate housing  with 20% lower income units.
Is your town short of very expensive housing? No?  It’s going to get a lot more, anyway.  And when the accounting is done in 2, 4, and 8 year reviews,  cities will be punished if developers have not actually built the mandated amount of housing in the correct percentages.


YES, CITIES ARE PUNISHED FOR THE DECISIONS OF DEVELOPERS
YOUR COMMUNITY NO LONGER MATTERSLocal governments — our link to democracy — have been sidelined under extreme pressure. New laws are crushingly  punitive for cities out of compliance.  Padding of market rate housing into the for profit model clutters the amount of space small cities still have. It doesn’t leave room for meaningful low income housing. Long term city planning is no longer the way our communities will grow. Massive projects with a small percentage of affordability will be granted swift approval. 


THE WHOLE COUNTRY IS SHORT 2-4 MILLION HOMES.
WHY DOES CALIFORNIA NEED 2.5 MILLION MORE? 


These numbers do not represent reality. They failed an audit and have been discredited. But the state is not backing down. Even though Governor Newsom refers to the number merely as “aspirational”  there are still severe consequences for towns that don’t make their numbers.

Learn More

WHO IS SUING


The Marin Post marinpost.org

Bob Silvestri 


https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/08/fairfax-sued-over-tardy-plan-for-housing/

Fairfax sued

https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/15/housing-lawsuits-against-marin-cities-funded-by-realtors/


Sausalito sued by housing advocates over alleged quota violations
marinij.com

Marin cities risk ‘builder’s remedy’ over housing plan delays
marinij.com

Marin IJ Readers’ Forum for Jan. 28, 2023
marinij.com

YIMBY Law Set to Sue Sausalito Over Allegedly Out-of-Compliance Housing Element
sfist.com

YIMBYs Bombard Bay Area Cities With Housing Lawsuits
sfstandard.com

California cities face flurry of lawsuits over missed housing mandate
courthousenews.


Press Releases yimbylaw.org 


Our Work | CA for Homeownership caforhomes.org 


 The California YIMBY Research Bounty Program cayimby.org



YIMBY: The Latest Frontier of Gentrification - Wyly - 2022 - International Journal of Urban and Regional Research - Wiley Online Library


Opinion: Putting the lie to YIMBY mantra 'Build, baby, build!'... Facts show unbridled market-rate development spurs gentrification - The Village Sun2/23/23


YIMBY, White Privilege, and the Soul of Our Cities — ShelterforceThis is a content preview space you can use to get your audience interested in what you have to say so they can’t wait to learn and read more. Pull out the most interesting detail that appears on the page and write it here.

A RESPONSE TO IRRATIONAL HOUSING LAWS AND POLICIES

Additional Information

The rise of corporate and institutional investors like Blackstone and its subsidiaries have exacerbated the lack of low income housing stock. Not just in California — this is a worldwide endeavor that consolidates  ownership to the detriment of renters. They purchase apartment buildings in “undervalued” neighborhoods,, and gentrify them. Working class residents lose their homes to large purchases of apartment buildings and whole neighborhoods, and the housing is upgraded out of their price range. 


When Governor Newsom declared a housing emergency, these larger factors were ignored.. He places  blame for slow production — especially in low to moderate categories —  squarely on cities. On NIMBYs. New laws remove perceived impediments to development: permits, public input, environmental review.  


WE ARE SET UP FOR FAILURE


Even if cities approve projects, they aren’t counted until permits are pulled  they are built.


The chart at the bottom shows the Regional Housing Allocation Numbers ( RHNA) that Marin cities are required to add. This cycle (6) runs from 2023-2031. The 5th cycle numbers are at the far right if the chart; the increases are enormous. 

HAZARDS? "It won't be possible to avoid those areas."

Tom Lai, Director of Marin County Community Development, at the 2/22 BOS Meeting

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