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UPDATE: As of April 25, 2023:
Your city had a recent deadline to turn in a huge document to the state, a Housing Element, that identifies land, private and public, where a state mandated amount of housing could be developed.
Sausalito is the first Marin city to have a certified housing element . Novato, Belvedere, and Larkspur just received rejection letters. Marin County unincorporated areas has to satisfy one more requirement before it is certified.
Like most cities across the state, yours probably failed to meet the deadline.
Past Housing Elements were easier. The new ones require so much detail and so many reports that cities had to hire to private consultants, paying out tens of thousands to millions of dollars to produce a Housing Element.
After leaving low income housing to the free market for a decade, we’re coming up short. There is an undeniable need for affordable housing. There is no shortage of market rate housing, because it’s profitable. But the nine-county Bay Area must plan for 441,000 new residences — a 15% increase in population — and about 40% are MANDATED AT MARKET RATE.
LETTERS AND RELATED BLOG POSTS ARE AT: WWW. MARINPOST.ORG
THERE IS A NEW VISION OF CALIFORNIA— AND MARIN — THAT WAS NOT SHARED WITH THE VOTERS
During 2020, while we were all distracted by covid, our lawmakers were busy. The governor declared a housing crisis, and the legislature started passing a huge number of housing laws to eliminate any local input that could slow the pace of housing. Permits, traffic studies, public hearings, lot coverage limitations, CEQA (California Enivronmental Quality Act) ... all are now considered nuisances. The laws forced cities to re-zone and change land use policies. They created a streamlined approval process to incentivize builders, and added a bunch of sweeteners. For developers, all carrot. For cities, all stick.
This is a free market solution in no way responsible to the communities that will be affected.
YOUR COMMUNITY NO LONGER MATTERS
Local governments — our link to democracy — have been sidelined under extreme pressure. New laws are crushingly punitive for cities out of compliance. Your town’s character is no longer relevant.
The mandates and laws force small towns in hazard zones to make bad choices. It doesn’t leave room for meaningful affordable housing. Long term city planning is no longer the way our communities will grow. Massive market rate projects with a small percentage of affordability are already being granted swift approvals, plunked practically anywhere, and city/county governments have no say.
Tom Lai, Director of Marin County Community Development Dept
Every 8 years cities are given housing mandates called RHNA ( Regional Housing Needs Assessment) but this cycle the numbers assigned were huge. January 31, 2023 was the deadline for turning in a document, a Housing Element, that shows the locations where the mandated housing could be accommodated.
Many small built-out cities with obvious limitations have had trouble finding the space. With no available open land, cities need private landowners willing to shutter local businesses and redevelop into housing. Otherwise public lands must be donated or sold for resident development.
DID YOUR CITY MAKE ITS DEADLINE ?
The Housing Elements must be certified by the state. While a city is out of compliance they are subject to lawsuits, fines, and builder‘s remedy (see links). Besides the new Housing Strike Force in the office of Attorney General Bonita, other organizations are lining up to sue.
Many Marin cities are already in this boat. As of 3/11/23, lawsuits have been filed or threatened against:
THE METHODOLOGY OF GETTING TO 2.5 MILLION UNITS STATEWIDE DO NOT REFLECT THESE REALITIES:
Only census figures (pre-Covid) and projections from the department of finance are supposed to be used, and even then the number failed a state audit. California is not, and should not, be growing at 15%. .
Since state redevelopment agencies closed in 2012, there has been a growing disparity in expensive to lower priced housing. Why? The free market prefers profitable development. The success of the tech market increased demand for high end housing; small houses were snatched up and flipped at high prices, often as larger remodels. Neighborhoods started changing.
Salaries for teachers and other essential workers did not increase, and they had to compete for scarcer housing that didn’t take more than 30% of their income.
Those at the lower end were left in desperate straights with the rising costs of living, and were displaced by what used to be the middle class. Gentrification continues to displace those at the lower ends.
Even when cities try to assist low income housing projects, money does not go far: costs are minimally $500,000 per unit.
Instead of creating policy to help those in need, state policy and laws have come together under the lobbying influence of YIMBY to create a for-profit solution — a vehicle to allow dense, unfettered, high-end development.
This started in 2017, ramped up in 2019, and then the pace of legislation really took off during Covid. There almost 100 laws now, and they all do the same thing: strip away the ability of localities to plan for growth, and give all the power to the developers who have been salivating over suburban and semi-rural land that has been kept at low, livable densities.
State overreach in law and policy has created dangerous precedents that undermine democracy without focus on providing affordable housing.
This has all been aided by the lobbying strength of YIMBY — Yes in My Backyard — a nonprofit megalith that has driven housing policy in California since its initial heavy funding by the tech industry.
There was no city-state discussion to adjust zoning and land use policy to encourage development where it could be safely and reasonably accommodated. Policy switched from a lackadaisical state response to a severe, overarching punishment-based system of compliance.
THERE WAS A REAL PROBLEM. THIS IS A TERRIBLE SOLUTION
THE HOUSING STRIKE FORCE
The state took a sledgehammer to local land use policy and stripped cities of the right to even question development. The legislated for-profit method: remove all perceived impediments to development:
In exchange for adding a minimal number of lower cost or rent restricted units to projects, developers have free rein to do as they like. State law forces cities to give streamlined approvals and hefty bonuses to such developments, regardless of any local concerns.
To avoid subsidizing needed housing, the state gives for-profit developers are huge incentives to create expensive multi-family housing if they include a small percentage of affordable units. Cities must allow:
The results of this process do not match the types of housing cities are mandated to produce. The RHNA mandates require roughly 40% at the lower end, 20% in the middle, and 40% at market rate.
The system, however, creates 80% market rate housing with 20% lower income units.
Is your town short of very expensive housing? No? It’s going to get a lot more, anyway. And when the accounting is done in 2, 4, and 8 year reviews, cities will be punished if developers have not actually built the mandated amount of housing in the correct percentages.
REAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/1/9/rhna-abag-demographic-projections-are-way-off
Marin cities risk ‘builder’s remedy’ over housing plan delays
marinij.com
Marin IJ Readers’ Forum for Jan. 28, 2023
marinij.com
PGE CAN’T COMMIT TO SERVICING THAT MANY NEW HOOKUPS:
Here's which Bay Area cities missed the housing element
sfexaminer.com
$5M available to build Marin County affordable housing northbaybusinessjournal.com
EXAMPLE OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH A 20/80 RATIO:
LARKSPUR, POPULATION 13,272
Larkspur has a RHNA just under 1000. A massive 20 unit project called Magnolia Village was — under duress — approved by the Planning Commission.
16 units are market rate, 4 are below.
It would take 150 projects like that in Larkspur to fulfill the RHNA in all categories. 150 x 20 = 3,000 units
If 3,000 units are built like that, 2,400 will be market rate, and 600 will be priced below (a specific mix of moderate, low, and extra low units).
Market rate RHNA will be met at 700%
The lower categories will still come up 5 units short with a RHNA of 605
The city of Larkspur will be dominated by huge structures. Traffic will be unbearable. With 3,000 new homes, the population could increase from 13,272 to 20,000
All neighboring cities will also see that kind of exponential growth. Marin will be a very different place.
If the RHNA didn’t mandate market rate, and 605 units were built without being tossed in to expensive developments, the population would still increase by about 1,500
THERE WAS A REAL PROBLEM. THIS IS A TERRIBLE SOLUTION
The state took a sledgehammer to local land use policy and stripped cities of the right to even question development. The legislated for-profit method: remove all perceived impediments to development:
In exchange for adding a minimal number of lower cost or rent restricted units to projects, developers have free rein to do as they like. State law forces cities to give streamlined approvals and hefty bonuses to such developments, regardless of any local concerns.
To avoid subsidizing needed housing, the state gives for-profit developers are huge incentives to create expensive multi-family housing if they include a small percentage of affordable units. Cities must allow:
The results of this process do not match the types of housing cities are mandated to produce. The mandates (called RHNA — Regional Housing Needs Assessmenot) require roughly 40% at the lower end, 20% in the middle, and 40% at market rate.
The system, however, creates 80% market rate housing with 20% lower income units.
Is your town short of very expensive housing? No? It’s going to get a lot more, anyway. And when the accounting is done in 2, 4, and 8 year reviews, cities will be punished if developers have not actually built the mandated amount of housing in the correct percentages.
YES, CITIES ARE PUNISHED FOR THE DECISIONS OF DEVELOPERS
YOUR COMMUNITY NO LONGER MATTERSLocal governments — our link to democracy — have been sidelined under extreme pressure. New laws are crushingly punitive for cities out of compliance. Padding of market rate housing into the for profit model clutters the amount of space small cities still have. It doesn’t leave room for meaningful low income housing. Long term city planning is no longer the way our communities will grow. Massive projects with a small percentage of affordability will be granted swift approval.
THE WHOLE COUNTRY IS SHORT 2-4 MILLION HOMES.
WHY DOES CALIFORNIA NEED 2.5 MILLION MORE?
These numbers do not represent reality. They failed an audit and have been discredited. But the state is not backing down. Even though Governor Newsom refers to the number merely as “aspirational” there are still severe consequences for towns that don’t make their numbers.
WHO IS SUING
Bob Silvestri
https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/08/fairfax-sued-over-tardy-plan-for-housing/
Fairfax sued
https://www.marinij.com/2023/02/15/housing-lawsuits-against-marin-cities-funded-by-realtors/
Sausalito sued by housing advocates over alleged quota violations
marinij.com
Marin cities risk ‘builder’s remedy’ over housing plan delays
marinij.com
Marin IJ Readers’ Forum for Jan. 28, 2023
marinij.com
YIMBY Law Set to Sue Sausalito Over Allegedly Out-of-Compliance Housing Element
sfist.com
YIMBYs Bombard Bay Area Cities With Housing Lawsuits
sfstandard.com
California cities face flurry of lawsuits over missed housing mandate
courthousenews.
Our Work | CA for Homeownership caforhomes.org
The California YIMBY Research Bounty Program cayimby.org
YIMBY, White Privilege, and the Soul of Our Cities — Shelterforce
The rise of corporate and institutional investors like Blackstone and its subsidiaries have exacerbated the lack of low income housing stock. Not just in California — this is a worldwide endeavor that consolidates ownership to the detriment of renters. They purchase apartment buildings in “undervalued” neighborhoods,, and gentrify them. Working class residents lose their homes to large purchases of apartment buildings and whole neighborhoods, and the housing is upgraded out of their price range.
When Governor Newsom declared a housing emergency, these larger factors were ignored.. He places blame for slow production — especially in low to moderate categories — squarely on cities. On NIMBYs. New laws remove perceived impediments to development: permits, public input, environmental review.
WE ARE SET UP FOR FAILURE
Even if cities approve projects, they aren’t counted until permits are pulled they are built.
The chart at the bottom shows the Regional Housing Allocation Numbers ( RHNA) that Marin cities are required to add. This cycle (6) runs from 2023-2031. The 5th cycle numbers are at the far right if the chart; the increases are enormous.
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